With President Trump at Oval Room, India Mostly to Get a Square Deal
So, will Mr. Donald Trump’s presidency be good for India or should we prepare for the worst? Despite months and months of a heated campaign where president Trump has made his opinions clear on almost everything under the sun, the foreign policy establishment is still divided. For one, no one knows this man; asides as being a “flamboyant real estate mogul”. His foreign policies and capabilities are yet to be seen. Till now Mr. President’s rhetoric has been protectionist, isolationist and often veering towards the extreme and if these were to see the light of the day, there will surely be deep ramifications for India as well as the global economy.
However, we strongly believe, that while President Trump would be an entirely different kettle of fish, he was trying to appeal to the average Joe in the US; cashing in on the anti-Washington and anti establishment sentiment. In our opinion, India is in a fortunate time and place, with a stable macro-economic environment led by a strong leadership which is pro-reforms and governance, setting the stage for delivering highest growth rate amidst the global economy. India also enjoys bi-partisan support among both the republicans and democrats. We strongly believe that President Trump’s policy would be to seek better relations with India. On policy circles, President Trump’s tough stand against the global jihadi threat has been welcomed, but there are deep concerns over his statements on H1B visas and immigration. If President Trump continues to take a hard line on immigration after being sworn-in; then that could have a negative impact on Indian software professionals who have dominated the Silicon Valley. However, we feel that the new US President could moderate his views once he takes charge. Additionally, President Trump won't be able to bring about a comprehensive immigration reform all on his own, as he will have to work with the legislature and the US Congress and that's going to be a long drawn out and difficult job.
We’d like to draw attention to President Trump’s victory speech, which was rather toned down, presenting a well-balanced view with a conciliatory-consensus building approach, than his previous pre-nomination election campaign rhetoric.
POSITIVES:
· Likely to take an unambiguously anti-Pakistan stand when it comes to non-state actors and terror tap
· Might help India in getting top end military technology and Space technology
· His ‘Stand Up to China’ policy could be good for India
· What NATO is today could make way for a Modi-Trump-Putin axis pitchforking India into the big league
NEGATIVES:
· Enough to worry about his statements on H1B visas and immigration
· Students preparing for GRE or GMAT can rule out USA from their preferred higher educational destinations
· India’s BPOs and Software companies could face huge business loss
· Might force India to join USA’s ‘War on terror’, demand India contribute troops if it calls itself an American ally
· Volatility in global markets could dry up FDI coming in
· Indian bonds will come under pressure and so will be the currency
